Forecasting Teacher Turnover and Shortage

Teacher turnover hit 15.4 percent. Teacher shortages fell to roughly 39,000, close to where they sat before the pandemic. Both are true at the same time, and which one your state is actually living decides what you should build.

The numbers

• 15.4% national turnover by 2024, up from a 12 to 14 percent band that held steady for fifteen years.
• 133,000 unfilled positions at the 2023 peak, down to an estimated 39,000 in 2026.
• 0.87 correlation with federal labor market data, so these are numbers you can take into a budget meeting.

Churn is not the same as shortage

High turnover with average vacancy is a retention problem. Texas is the example. A vacancy rank climbing fast is a supply problem, which is what several Mid-Atlantic states now face. The same program does not fix both, and most states cannot tell you which one they have.

Is your state in here

Six states have run at or above 17 percent turnover every year since 2019. Seven have never crossed 13 percent. Vacancy pressure has moved toward the Northeast and the northern Plains. Every state is mapped, year by year, 2019 to 2026.

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Built on district-level turnover data from every state across two decades and shortage data from 46 states. By Joshua Bleiberg, PhD (University of Pittsburgh) and Tuan Nguyen, PhD (University of Missouri), who also co-authored our National Scan of teacher workforce data systems. The 2026 estimates carry real uncertainty, and the report says so plainly.